Thursday, November 25, 2021

Detroit may take longer to emerge economically Just like NY

 Thank You Metrotimes.com for this 

Quote : "It brings us no joy to report that the so-called “skyscraper curse” appears to be alive and well in Detroit. First put forth in 1999 by British economist Andrew Lawrence, the skyscraper curse theory states that the construction of new, tallest buildings can be seen as a sort of canary in the coal mine of an overheated economy — and could be a harbinger of an upcoming recession. The Free Press reports that progress on Dan Gilbert’s tax-subsidized tower at the site of the former J.L. Hudson Co. is slow, and Bedrock appears to have quietly scaled back the scope of the project, which may no longer be the tallest building in Michigan. Meanwhile, another Gilbert project, the Monroe blocks, appears to be indefinitely stalled. Gilbert’s in good company: The Fisher Building was initially planned to be one of three towers, one of which was supposed to be even taller, while the Book Tower was also intended to have a taller sister project. Both projects were foiled by the Great Depression."
The observation that Detroit is cursed has a tradition in the Nain Rouge - a tuxedoed red devil that shows up every year to remind us that Cadillac Detroit's founder faked it till he made it (Cadillac came to a bad ending ) 

However there is cause for worry - economically covid19 slowed it all down. For a city to bounce back it needs tourists, great schools and reasonably priced apartments - which is problematic for both Detroit and NYC. Crime may have nothing to do with it. Apartment pricing has everything to do with it. Having lived in  both cities - you need to make over 52 K to be approved for apartments that are in great areas of town (parks, organic grocery stores, great walking, clean, good restaurants and bars you get the idea...)

If you make less than 52 K but can swing it with a roommate and a cosigner that makes 40 x more that your monthly rent you too can live the dream. Pre Covid it was a lot easier-  careers , even starting careers paid consistently. Jobs had to pay @22 $hr @ 40 hours a week (45 K before taxes) to keep you from being homeless. This was the assembly line wage. Either way, salary or grunt work, life used to be affordable.

No one stays in a position now. Yet apartment managers look unkindly on resumes that show too much flux- they assume your $ fluxes as well. The average manager of apartment buildings is too busy evicting people. Detroit only made it through the 1st 18 months of covid19 because the FEDS promised evictions would be frozen ...

 Detroit is a city that has a very weak tenant protection system and NO rent control or stabilization- You pay what you pay in Detroit. By contrast in NY  the tenant has a lot more agency. Find a rent stabilized apartment and rent increases occur every 2 years. Sometimes , like now , increases are frozen, which means the price is well under $2000.00 a month . Just look for the 100 year old building or this list 

Most  apartments in desirable areas are averaging over 3K a month for NYC and a little less for Staten Island. Here is the link if you find this difficult to believe. 

 New York Rent Trends: Inventory by Average Apartment Rent. 0% of apartments in New York cost less than $1,000 per month. 11% of apartments in New York cost between $1,000-$1,999 per month. 29% of apartments in New York cost between $2,000-$2,999 per month. 60% of apartments in New York cost over $3,000 per month.

Detroit apartments especially the Downtown are similarly priced. Lots to chose from- the jobs that pay over 52k are less plentiful and covid19 changed the workplace anyway. Also in most cities there are less expensive alternatives, in less dense neighborhoods. 

The list of cities that are poised to be resilient and desirable post covid19  are typical  midsized college towns/tech centers, not reinvented rustbelt cities or historical capitols/Mecca's. Put your money on Provo Utah  , not Philadelphia.